类比预测法在城市群体建筑物震害预测中的应用  

The method of prediction based on analogy in the application of seismic disaster prediction for urban congregate buildings

作　　者：李升才[1] 王毅恒[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《地震工程与工程振动》2011年第5期166-171,共6页Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50948036)

摘　　要：群体建筑物量大面广,为了简化群体建筑物震害预测的工作,采用类比预测法对群体建筑物震害进行了预测。从城市建筑中选取具有典型破坏特征的建筑物作为样本,通过建筑物结构类型、高度、建设年代、现状质量和用途作为震害影响因子进行震害类比预测。建立规划区内建筑物易损性矩阵。最后以宁德市为例,利用本文方法给出了宁德市建筑物的易损性矩阵。并对其震害结果进行了分析统计。证明该方法具有可行性,以及较高的可靠性。Urban congregate buildings are vast in territory.In order to simplify seismic disaster pre-diction,a method for predicting buildings＇ seismic disaster is applied in this paper.Typical destroyed buildings are selected as samples,taking building structure types,building height,construction year,present situation of quality as earthquake damage prediction effect factors of analogy,the vulneraility matrix can be established.The vulnerability matrix of Ningde District is obtained by using this method.The result has been verified.It is shown that this method is feasible and highly reliable.

关 键 词：群体建筑物 类比预测法 震害预测 样本库 宁德市 

分 类 号：P315.958[天文地球—地震学]