湖南省公路交通暴雨风险评价研究  

Assessment of rainstorm risk to highway in Hunan Province

作　　者：武永峰[1,2] 张勇[3] 陈鲜艳[3] 尚赞娣[4] 刘布春[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [2]农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室,北京100081 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]交通部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2011年第5期148-154,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC29B05;2006BAD04B07);863专题课题(2009AA12Z124;2009AA12Z143);农业国际交流与合作项目"农村脆弱地区天气指数农业保险";中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费"应用于农业保险的气象灾害损失评估模型的研究"

摘　　要：以湖南省为例,在地理信息系统技术和灰色综合评价方法的支持下,建立了基于栅格数据的公路交通暴雨风险评价模型,对湖南省公路交通暴雨风险状况进行了评价与分析。结果表明:公路水毁情况严重的岳阳、永州、郴州、常德、张家界、湘西以及娄底等地,其暴雨风险水平亦较高;受灾国道和省道几乎均处于较重度以上暴雨风险区。说明本风险评价模型具有一定的可信度。基于栅格数据层建立的公路交通暴雨风险评价从空间上突破了行政界限的制约,突出显示了公路受灾风险的时空格局,为公路暴雨灾害预报提供了技术支持。Supported by geographic information system （GIS） technique and gray comprehensive assessment meth- od, this study set up a rainstorm risk evaluation model of highway based on the raster data, through which the rain- storm risk of the highways in Hunan Province were evaluated. The risks of the rainstom were graded into low, mid- dle, relatively high, high and very high. The results of the risk evaluation are validated using the local disaster los- ses and shows that the regions with the serious road washouts are mainly distributed in Yueyang, Yongzhou, Chenz- hou, Changde, Zhangjiajie, Xiangxi and Loudi, and their rainstorm risks are greater than that of other regions. The mostly damaged highways locate in the high risk areas and above it. It is proved that the risk model is effective for the assessment on the rainstorm risk of the highways. boundaries and reveals the spatiotemporal patterns of the support forecasts of the rainstorm disaster of highways. The model breaks through the limitation of administrative rainstorm risk of the highways, even supplies a technical

关 键 词：公路 暴雨 风险 灰色综合评价 模型 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]