基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估  

Threat Assessment for Space Battlefield Targets Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

作　　者：周立新[1] 李智[2] 

机构地区：[1]装备指挥技术学院研究生管理大队,北京101416 [2]装备指挥技术学院重点实验室,北京101416

出　　处：《装备指挥技术学院学报》2011年第5期68-73,共6页Journal of the Academy of Equipment Command & Technology

基　　金：部委级资助项目

摘　　要：空间战场目标威胁评估对未来空间作战指挥决策具有重要的意义,探讨了空间战场的特点及空间战场威胁目标的特点。针对静态贝叶斯网络（Bayesian network,BN）无法有效地解决动态空间战场中目标的威胁评估问题,提出利用动态贝叶斯网络（dynamic Bayesian network,DBN）来解决空间战场目标威胁评估,建立了基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估模型,利用所建立的模型进行了仿真计算。研究结果证明,基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估模型能够适应战场形势的变化,可应用于未来空间战场目标威胁评估专家系统的开发,并且比利用静态BN得出的威胁程度更准确,可靠性更高。Threat assessment of space battlefield targets has great meaning for command and decision-making in the future space operation.The paper discusses the characteristics of space battlefield and space threat targets.Aiming at the problem of threat assessment that is not well solved by Bayesian network（BN） in the dynamic space battlefield,a dynamic Bayesian network（DBN） theory is introduced.After that,a DBN-based threat assessment model for space operation is constructed;then,the paper performs a simulation using the proposed model.The simulation result shows that the DBN-based threat assessment model is adaptive to the dynamic change in the battlefield;it can be used in the process of developing the expert system in the future space operation.What is more,the DBN-based threat assessment model is more effective and reliable to reflect the real threat level than the Bayesian network model.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 动态贝叶斯网络 空间战场 空间态势 威胁评估 

分 类 号：TP274[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置] E9[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]