序位集对分析在辽河流域年降雨预测中的应用  

Application of Ordinal Set Pair Analysis in Annual Rainfall Prediction of Liao River Basin

作　　者：刘银迪[1] 张小壮 张泽中[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院,河南郑州450011 [2]国电迪庆香格里拉发电有限责任公司,云南香格里拉674402

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第28期17534-17536,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家十一五水专项资助(2009ZX07208-010-T004);华北水利水电学院高层次人才引进计划项目资助(200926);华北水利水电学院研究生教育创新计划基金(YK2010-12);河南省教育厅自然科学研究(2009A570002);河南省青年骨干教师资助计划项(2009GGJ3-061)

摘　　要：[目的]研究序位集对分析在辽河流域年降雨预测中的应用。[方法]将序位理论引入集对分析建模中,改进集对分析预测模型,提出了一种基于序位的集对分析降雨量预测模型(Ordinal-Set Pair Analysis O-SPA),并以辽河流域1956～2006年水文雨量站年降雨量时间序列为研究对象,利用该模型对1998～2006年年降雨量进行预测,并给出误差分析。[结果]序位集对分析方法预测结果的相对误差中,5%以内的有6个,占总预测数的66.7%;5%～10%的有1个,占11.1%;10%～15%的有2个,占22.2%。相对误差均小于20%,满足《水文情报预报规范》对年降雨量预报的精度要求。[结论]基于序位集对分析模型的降雨量预测具有较高的精度,预测结果较为理想,适用于年降雨量的预测。[Objective] The research aimed to study the application of ordinal set pair analysis in the annual precipitation prediction of Liao River basin.[Method] The ordinal theory was introduced in the set pair analysis modeling,and the set pair analysis prediction model was improved.A kind of rainfall prediction model based on the ordinal set pair analysis（OSPA） was put forward.The time sequence of annual rainfall in the hydrological rainfall station of Liao River basin during 1956-2006 was the research objective.The annual rainfall during 1998-2006 was predicted by the model,and the error analysis was given.[Result] In the relative errors of predicted results of ordinal set pair analysis,there were six relative errors which occupied 66.7% of the total prediction number less than 5%,one relative error which occupied 11.1% of the total prediction number between 5% and 10%,while two relative errors which occupied 22.2% of the total prediction number were between 10% and 15%.All the relative errors were less than 20%,which met the precision requirement of the annual rainfall prediction in Forecast Specification of Hydrological Information.[Conclusion] The rainfall prediction based on the ordinal set pair analysis model had the high precision,and the prediction result was ideal.It was suitable for the prediction of annual rainfall.

关 键 词：年降雨量预测 序位集对分析 辽河流域 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]