应急决策方案的动态调整方法研究  

Study on the Dynamic Adjusting Method for Emergency Decision

作　　者：姜艳萍[1] 樊治平[1] 苏明明[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2011年第5期104-108,共5页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大计划培育项目(90924016);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871021);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-08-0104);辽宁省高校创新团队支持计划项目(WT2010018)

摘　　要：本文针对应急决策中方案的动态调整问题,提出了一种风险决策方法。首先,根据突发事件的情景演变特点,描述了应急决策中方案调整的问题和过程,并对不同方案之间的相关性进行分析;然后,阐述了调整方案的生成过程;进一步地,考虑调整方案对各级别突发事件的应急处置效果和应对损失、不同方案之间的转换成本等因素,给出了应急决策方案的动态调整方法;最后,通过算例说明了该方法的有效性和可行性。With respect to the problem of alternatives adjusting in emergency decision,a risk decision method is proposed.According to the characteristics of scenarios evolution in emergency event,the whole procedure of dynamic adjusting is firstly described,and the correlation between different alternatives is identified.Then,the generation of adjusting alternatives is described.Further more,some factors are also considered in this paper,such as the performance of alternatives,the loss during the procedure,the switching costs between the emergency alternatives and so on,and the dynamic adjustment method is given.Finally,an example is given to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：应急决策 动态调整 风险决策 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]