基于GIS的太湖流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险定量化研究  

GIS-based Quantitative Research on the Risk of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in Taihu Basin

作　　者：于文金 闫永刚[1] 吕海燕[1] 李芬[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]山西省气象局,山西太原030002

出　　处：《灾害学》2011年第4期1-7,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(10672052);淮河流域气象开放研究基金(HRM200802);河海灾害实验室开放基金(20090024);南京信息工程大学校基金(20070004)

摘　　要：暴雨洪水灾害是威胁人类的区域重要气象灾害,暴雨风险研究具有重要的现实意义。在GIS/RS技术支撑下,采用AHP层次分析法和综合指数方法对太湖区域暴雨洪水风险压力进行了定量化研究。研究发现:①由于降水频度高危险性指数为5.5～7.1,湖西区属于重度危险到极度危险区;浦东浦西区危险性指数为4.5～5.5,属于中度危险到重度危险区;武澄锡区、阳澄淀泖区由于地势低洼,危险性指数为4.2～5.5,属于轻度危险到重度危险区;杭州湾北岸的杭嘉湖区、浙西区受径流影响,危险指数为2.3～4.8,属于微度危险到中度危险区。②上海的浦东、浦西区与苏州、无锡、常州、杭州、镇江的脆弱性指数为7～10,属于重度脆弱到极度脆弱区;张家港、常熟、太仓、昆山以及浙北地区的湖州、嘉兴等地脆弱性指数为4.8～7.0,属于中度脆弱到重度脆弱区;浙西的山区脆弱性指数为1～4.6,属于微度脆弱到轻度脆弱区。③太湖流域北岸的湖西区、武澄锡区、阳澄淀泖区以及浦东浦西区的综合风险指数较高;杭嘉湖区次之;浙西区综合风险最低。Rainstorm and flood disasters are important regional meteorological disasters that threaten human,therefore rainstorm risk research is practically significant.On GIS/RS technology support,quantitative research on the risk pressure of rainstorm and flood disaster in Taihu Basin is done by using AHP and composite index method.Results show that： ① the west lake,having precipitation frequency risk index as high as 5.5～7.1,is in severe risk to extremely dangerous area;Pudong Puxi area,having risk index as 4.5～5.5,belongs to moderate risk to severe risk area;Being low-lying,Wuchengxi and Yang Cheng Dian Mao Districts,are in mild risk to severe risk area with risk index as 4.2～5.5;Hangzhou Bay in the Hangjiahu area and the western Zhejiang area,affected by run-off,belong to micro-risk to mild risk area with risk index as 2.3～4.8.② Pudong and Puxi Districts in Shanghai and Wuxi,Changzhou,Hangzhou and Zhenjiang in Suzhou,having vulnerability index as 7～10,belongs to severe vulnerable to extremely vulnerable area;Zhangjiagang,Changshu,Taicang,Kunshan and Huzhou,Jiaxing,etc.in northern Zhejiang Province,belongs to mild vulnerable to severe vulnerable area with vulnerability index as 4.8～7.0;vulnerability index as 1～4.6,the mountainous area of western Zhejiang is in micro-vulnerable to mild vulnerable area.③ Composite risk index of the west lake area,Wuchengxi area and Yang Cheng Dian Mao area in the north shore of Taihu Lake and Pudong Puxi area are relatively high,that of Jiaxing-Huzhou area followed and that of the western Zhejiang area is the lowest.

关 键 词：GIS 太湖 暴雨 洪涝灾害 风险 定量化 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]