西安世园会开、闭幕式期间灾害性天气风险分析  

Risk Analysis on Weather Disasters during the Opening and Closing Ceremonies of the International Horticultural Exposition in Xi'an

作　　者：雷向杰[1] 方建刚[1] 毛明策[1] 姜创业[1] 王越[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气候中心,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《灾害学》2011年第4期40-46,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项"西安世园会高影响天气预报预警技术研究(GYHY201006032)";陕西省气象局2010年气象科技创新基金项目(2010M-19)

摘　　要：为了给有关部门应对可能出现的灾害性天气提供科学依据,利用西安气象站1951-2010年各种气象要素逐日观测资料,应用极值统计、单日概率计算和易损性分析等方法,分析了西安世界园艺博览会开、闭幕式期间出现各种灾害性天气的可能性,以及可能带来的风险及影响。结果表明:开幕式期间,尤其是2011年4月28日开幕式当日,西安出现暴雨的可能性小,出现干旱、沙尘天气可能性大,出现连续降水天气可能性较大,出现其它灾害性天气可能性小。闭幕式期间,尤其是2011年10月22日闭幕式当日,西安出现暴雨的可能性小,出现连续降水可能性大,出现沙尘、强降温、霜冻可能性较小,出现其它灾害性天气可能性小,但闭幕式前出现初霜可能性大。连续降水天气可能对参加开、闭幕式游客数量和经济收入产生明显影响。In order to provide scientific basis for related departments to deal with the severe weather that may occur,the possibility of weather disasters,risks and impact on the opening and closing ceremonies of the International Horticultural Exposition in Xi＇an are analyzed,by use of daily observations of different meteorological factors of Xi＇an weather station in the period of 1951～2010,extreme value statistics,single-day probability calculation and vulnerability analysis.The results show that： during the opening ceremony,especially the opening day on April 28,2011,the possibility of rainstorm is low in Xi＇an,but the possibility of drought and dust weather is high.The possibility of continuous rains is high and possibility of other disaster weathers is low.During the closing ceremony,especially the closing day on October 22,2011,the possibility of heavy rains in Xi＇an is low,but the possibility of continuous rains is high and the possibility of dust,strong cooling and frost is low.Before the closing ceremony,the possibility of the first frost is high,but the possibility of other severe weathers is low.The continuous rains may affect the tourist amount and economic income of the opening and closing ceremonies.

关 键 词：西安世界园艺博览会 开、闭幕式 灾害性天气 出现概率 风险分析 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]