影响地震救灾效率的因素分析——以汶川8.0级地震和玉树7.1级地震为例  

Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Efficiency of Earthquake Disaster Relief——A case study on Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake and Yushu M7.1 earthquake

作　　者：周阿颖[1,2] 张朝[1,2] 史培军[1,2] 刘晓菲[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2011年第4期134-138,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大国际合作研究项目(40821140354);中央高校基本科研业务专项资金

摘　　要：从地震报告死亡人数与震后时间关系的角度来定义救灾效率;研究了近20年发生在世界各地的震级大、伤亡严重、破坏性极大的34个地震。采用多元素分析法,探讨了地震救灾效率与死亡人数、地震震级、烈度、人均GDP、人口密度以及最大救灾效率发生的时刻等之间的关系。研究发现:死亡人数是影响救灾效率的最主要的因素,随着死亡人数的增加,救灾效率会越低;震级以及最大救灾效率发生时刻与救灾效率之间也存在显著的负相关;而震区的经济水平和人口密度对救灾效率的影响并不显著。比较了2008年汶川8.0级地震和2010年玉树7.1级地震,发现玉树地震的人均救灾效率较汶川地震有大幅度提升。The relief efficiency is defined as an increasing death toll relative to missing persons during a certain period after an earthquake.A series of death toll of 34 significant earthquakes all over the world in recent 20 years are collected,and the correlations between relief efficiency and death toll,magnitude,intensity,per capita GDP,population density and time at maximum relief efficiency,are analyzed.We found that death toll in earthquake is the main factor controlling the relief efficiency,and the significantly negative correlations between relief efficiency and earthquake magnitude,and occurring time of maximum efficiency are shown,implying that the rapid emergence response of a government after a catastrophe will increase disaster relief efficiency.A simulation equation（r2=0.82） to calculate the relief efficiency is figured out by filtering and reducing noise.Finally,the relief efficiency of two catastrophes,Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in 2008 and Yushu M7.1 Earthquake in 2010,is compared.It shows that the per capita relief efficiency of Yushu Earthquake is greatly improved relative to that of the Wenchuan earthquake.

关 键 词：地震救灾效率 多元素分析法 死亡人数 汶川8.0级地震 玉树7.1级地震 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]