An Experiment of a Statistical Downscaling Forecast Model for Summer Precipitation over China  

作　　者：KE Zong-Jian ZHANG Pei-Qun CHEN Li-Juan DU Liang-Min 

机构地区：[1]National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China [2]Wuhan Regional Climate center, Wuhan 430074, China

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2011年第5期270-275,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by China Meteorological Administration R & D Special Fund for Public Welfare (Meteorology) (Grant Nos. GYHY200906018 and GYHY200906015);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41005051);the National Key Technologies R & D Program of China (Grant No. 2009BAC51B05)

摘　　要：A combination of the optimal subset regression (OSR) approach,the coupled general circulation model of the National Climate Center (NCC-CGCM) and precipitation observations from 160 stations over China is used to construct a statistical downscaling forecast model for precipitation in summer.Retroactive forecasts are performed to assess the skill of statistical downscaling during the period from 2003 to 2009.The results show a poor simulation for summer precipitation by the NCCCGCM for China,and the average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is 0.01 in the forecast period.The forecast skill can be improved by OSR statistical downscaling,and the OSR forecast performs better than the NCC-CGCM in most years except 2003.The spatial ACC is more than 0.2 in the years 2008 and 2009,which proves to be relatively skillful.Moreover,the statistical downscaling forecast performs relatively well for the main rain belt of the summer precipitation in some years,including 2005,2006,2008,and 2009.However,the forecast skill of statistical downscaling is restricted to some extent by the relatively low skill of the NCCCGCM.A combination of the optimal subset regression （OSR） approach, the coupled general circulation model of the National Climate Center （NCC-CGCM） and precipitation observations from 160 stations over China is used to construct a statistical downscaling forecast model for precipitation in summer. Retroactive forecasts are performed to assess the skill of statistical downscaling during the period from 2003 to 2009. The results show a poor simulation for summer precipitation by the NCCCGCM for China, and the average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） is 0.01 in the forecast period. The forecast skill can be improved by OSR statistical downscaling, and the OSR forecast performs better than the NCC-CGCM in most years except 2003. The spatial ACC is more than 0.2 in the years 2008 and 2009, which proves to be relatively skillful. Moreover, the statistical downscaling forecast performs relatively well for the main rain belt of the summer precipitation in some years, including 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009. However, the forecast skill of statistical downscaling is restricted to some extent by the relatively low skill of the NCCCGCM.

关 键 词：PRECIPITATION statistical downscaling China SUMMER 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]