太原盆地地震潜势分析  

ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC POTENTIAL IN TAIYUAN BASIN

作　　者：张井飞[1] 谢富仁[1] 荆振杰[1] 杜义[1] 黄学猛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2011年第5期47-51,共5页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：中国地震局地震行业科研专项(200908001)

摘　　要：将太原盆地划分为4个区段,利用近年来在各区段取得的古地震数据,通过实时概率模型,对每个区段分别进行强震潜势的定量评估。得出太原-文水区与太谷区未来50年内发生7级以上强震的概率分别为7.1%和15%,100年内为13.9%与27.8%,而介休-平遥区与汾阳区发生7级以上强震的可能性极小。The Taiyuan basin is divided into four sections： the Taiyuan-Wenshui area and the Fenyang area,the Taigu area and the Jiexiu-Pingyao area.The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Taiyuan basin is analysed,with real-time probability model,the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section.The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Taiyuan-Wenshui area,the Taigu area in the next 50 years are 7.1%,15%,in the next 100 years are 13.9%,27.8%,while the Fenyang and the Taigu areas have very low possibility of earthquake larger than magnitude 7.

关 键 词：太原盆地 活动断裂 地震潜势 地震构造 实时概率模型 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]