农业投入品对低碳农业生产影响的实证分析  

Empirical Study on the Impact of Agriculture Inputs to the Low Carbon Agriculture Production

作　　者：卿树涛[1] 张友良[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省委党校经济学部,湖南长沙410006

出　　处：《湖南财政经济学院学报》2011年第5期18-24,共7页Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：运用向量系统下的协整技术,分析农药、化肥、农用机械和农用薄膜等生产技术因子与农业生产总值增加值之间的长期均衡关系、各要素冲击的滞后影响以及历史值与均衡值的偏离情况,并建立误差校正模型对未来十年各要素投入量的均衡值进行动态预测。研究结果表明,目前的生产模式与低碳农业发展模式不相容,必须制定低碳农业发展规划,提高农业投入品的使用效率,提供相关制度安排,以发展低碳农业。In this article, the co - integration techniques of vector system is used to analyze the long equilibrium relation between the added value of gross agricultural production and factor of production technology which include pesticide, fertilizer, agricultural machinery and film, and specify the lagged effect of each agricultural inputs and illuminate each factor~ de- viation between history value and equilibrium value. Furthermore, by establishing the VEC model, we forecast the equi- librium value of the amount of factor inputs in the next decade. The results show that the present agriculture production methods are not consistent with low carbon economy, So we must work out the development planning of low carbon agriculture, improve the efficiency of agricultural inputs and provide the institutional arrangements to develop low carbon agriculture.

关 键 词：农业投入品 低碳农业 协整分析 误差校正模型 

分 类 号：F3[经济管理—产业经济] DF468[政治法律—环境与资源保护法学]