考虑疲劳裂纹的老龄平台检修规划及经济寿命预测  

Maintenance planning and economic life prediction of ageing offshore platforms in consideration of fatigue cracks

作　　者：林红[1,2] 陈国明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东东营257061 [2]中国石油大学储运与建筑工程学院,山东东营257061

出　　处：《石油学报》2011年第5期905-910,共6页Acta Petrolei Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.50679083);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(09CX05008A);中国石油大学引进人才科研基金资助项目(Y1015006)联合资助

摘　　要：以服役多年的老龄导管架平台结构为研究对象,考虑老龄退化因素导致的裂纹萌生速率增长以及维修行为的非完好性,分析其对检修间隔变化的影响。计算发现,平台服役后期检修次数增多,且检修间隔相应减小。针对受疲劳裂纹扩展损伤的老龄导管架平台,基于风险分析理论,在确保平台失效概率小于给定失效阈值的前提下,以设计服役期内的平台利润作为决策优化目标,建立起基于利润分析的检修决策模型。通过示例计算表明,该模型可对平台服役期内的检测及维修策略进行评估,并讨论了失效阈值的选取对决策方案的影响。基于经济学的边际利润分析,以平台寿命周期内利润最大为原则,建立老龄平台最优经济寿命模型;通过计算平台结构的边际收入等于边际支出时所对应的服役时间,可获得最优检修规划下老龄平台所能取得的最优经济寿命。该方法对于评估实际海洋石油工程中导管架平台的检修策略与服役寿命有一定的指导意义。Ageing offshore jacket platforms that have been in service for a long term were taken as research examples,and both the increase of crack initiation rates resulted from ageing deterioration and the effect of non-perfect repairs on maintenance intervals were dealt with.Calculation results showed that inspection and repair times increased with time during the late-phase service of platforms and correspondingly maintenance intervals decreased.A maintenance planning model based on profit analysis was established for ageing offshore platforms subject to fatigue crack damage,in terms of the risk analysis theory,and the planning was made as a decision-making object that platform profits during the designed service period were maximized under the condition that the annual failure probability was guaranteed less than the given failure threshold.Calculation results were given to illustrate the profit assessment by this model for selecting the optimal inspection and maintenance strategy,and the effect of failure threshold determinations on a decision-making scheme was discussed as well.Furthermore,in terms of the marginal-profit analysis of economics,an optimized economic life model was established based on the principle of maximal profits within the life cycle of platforms.By calculating the service time when the marginal revenue of platform structures equals to the marginal outlay,an optimized economic life for ageing offshore platforms inspected under an optimized maintenance plan could be obtained.This approach is of definite guidance in assessing the maintenance strategy and service life of ageing jacket platforms in actual offshore petroleum engineering.

关 键 词：老龄导管架平台 检修规划 经济寿命预测 边际利润 老龄退化 

分 类 号：TE951[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]