大型发电机组可靠性预测方法与应用  

Reliability Prediction Methods and Application of Large Capacity Generating Units

作　　者：史进渊[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海发电设备成套设计研究院,上海200240

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2011年第18期165-172,共8页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划;2007AA04Z429);上海市科技创新行动计划(09111100600)资助项目

摘　　要：提出发电机组可靠性预测的数学模型和预测方法。该方法在统计分析发电机组运行可靠性历史数据的基础上,确定检修系数的统计值与数学模型的待定参数。根据发电机组的计划检修天数与检修系数的数学模型,预测今后3年发电机组的等效可用系数。给出亚临界300 MW、超临界600 MW、亚临界600 MW火电机组和550 MW水电机组以及984 MW、990 MW核电机组的可靠性预测实例。这些发电机组等效可用系数预测值的相对误差的范围是–1.48%～2.69%,表明可靠性预测的精度比较高。应用发电机组的可靠性预测方法,可以定量计算发电机组可靠性指标的预测值,为发电机组的可靠性目标管理和优化检修提供依据。A mathematical model of the reliability prediction of generating units is presented,together with the reliability prediction method.Based on statistical analysis of operation reliability past data for generating units,statistical values of the repair factor and the mathematical model＇s parameters of the repair factor are determined.According to plan repair outage days and the mathematical model for the repair factor of a generating unit,equivalent availability factor（EAF） of the generating unit could be predicted in future three years.The reliability prediction examples for sub-critical 300 MW,supercritical 600 MW and sub-critical 600 MW fossil units are given together with reliability prediction results of 550 MW hydro units and 984 MW,990 MW nuclear units.The relative error＇s range for equivalent availability factor prediction values of the generating units is between –1.48% to 2.69% which indicates that reliability prediction precision is higher.By using of the reliability prediction method,prediction values for the reliability indexes of generating units can be quantitatively calculated which provides a basis for reliability objective management and optimization repair of generating units.

关 键 词：发电机组 可靠性 等效可用系数 可靠性预测 

分 类 号：TM621[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]