A GCM-Based Forecasting Model for the Landfall of Tropical Cyclones in China  

作　　者：孙建奇 Joong Bae AHN 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 [2]Division of Earth Environmental System, Atmospheric Sciences,Pusan National University, Pusan 609735, Korea [3]Division of Earth Environmental System,Atmospheric Sciences,Pusan National University,Pusan 609735,Korea

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2011年第5期1049-1055,共7页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences key program(Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q03-3);the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program(Grant No. CATER 2009-1147);the Korea Rural Development Administration Research and Development Program;the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421406)

摘　　要：A statistical dynamic model for forecasting Chinese landfall of tropical cyclones （CLTCs） was developed based on the empirical relationship between the observed CLTC variability and the hindcast atmospheric circulations from the Pusan National University coupled general circulation model （PNU-CGCM）.In the last 31 years,CLTCs have shown strong year-to-year variability,with a maximum frequency in 1994 and a minimum frequency in 1987.Such features were well forecasted by the model.A cross-validation test showed that the correlation between the observed index and the forecasted CLTC index was high,with a coefficient of 0.71.The relative error percentage （16.3%） and root-mean-square error （1.07） were low.Therefore the coupled model performs well in terms of forecasting CLTCs;the model has potential for dynamic forecasting of landfall of tropical cyclones.A statistical dynamic model for forecasting Chinese landfall of tropical cyclones （CLTCs） was developed based on the empirical relationship between the observed CLTC variability and the hindcast atmospheric circulations from the Pusan National University coupled general circulation model （PNU-CGCM）.In the last 31 years,CLTCs have shown strong year-to-year variability,with a maximum frequency in 1994 and a minimum frequency in 1987.Such features were well forecasted by the model.A cross-validation test showed that the correlation between the observed index and the forecasted CLTC index was high,with a coefficient of 0.71.The relative error percentage （16.3%） and root-mean-square error （1.07） were low.Therefore the coupled model performs well in terms of forecasting CLTCs;the model has potential for dynamic forecasting of landfall of tropical cyclones.

关 键 词：statistical-dynamical model cyclone forecast tropical cyclone coupled model cross validation 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]