人口老龄化背景下农民的养老风险及其制度需求——基于全国十个省份千户农民的调查数据  

Farmers' Endowment Risk and Their Institutional Demand under the Background of Aging Population:An Empirical Study based on the Thousand Families Survey Data from Ten Provinces in China

作　　者：于长久[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学商学院,石河子831100

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2011年第10期56-66,111,共11页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金2009年度规划基金项目"风险与保障视角下的农村社会养老保险制度研究"(编号:09YJA810027);湖北省就业与再就业研究中心基金项目"城乡社会保障资源一体化研究"(编号:21431020813)

摘　　要：本文基于2009年全国十个省份千户农民的调查数据,利用分步Logistic回归技术分析农民的养老风险及其影响因素,利用描述性统计分析和交互分析考察农民的制度需求及其地区差异。研究发现,农民对养老问题并没有表现出普遍的担心,养老风险不是影响当前农村社会稳定的主要原因;经济保障依然是农民首要担心的养老问题,非经济保障问题并不非常突出,但应给予关注;年龄、民族、婚姻状况、受教育程度、家庭关系、家庭存款数、农户类型、职业类型、所在区位和是否试行新农保10个变量对农民养老风险及其形式有显著的影响;农民对养老的制度安排表现出明确的需求且地区差异显著。Based on the survey data of a thousand families coming from ten provinces in China in 2009,the paper analyzed farmer's endowment risk and its influencing factors by using regression model of Logistic,and studied farmers' institutional demand and its difference between regions by using descriptive statistical analysis and interaction analysis method.The results reveal that not most of farmers feel anxious on the aging problems,endowment risk is not the primary risk which affecting the stability of rural area now.Economic security is still the primary risk on the aging problems,and non-economic security is not serious problems,but we should have a close eye on it.These ten independent variables including age,nation,marital status,education,family relations,household-saving,farmers type,job type,location where and whether putting the new rural social endowment insurance into effect have significant relationship with endowment risk and its risk forms.The peasants have definite institutional demand on the aging problems.The institutional demand shows a significant difference between regions.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 农民养老 养老风险 制度需求 经济保障 

分 类 号：F323.89[经济管理—产业经济]