考虑进度不确定的土石坝填筑施工成本风险分析  

Cost-risk analysis of earth dam construction with considerations of schedule uncertainty

作　　者：王卓甫[1] 刘俊艳[1] 丁继勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学工程管理研究所,南京210098

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2011年第5期229-233,247,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

摘　　要：在气象等不确定因素的影响下,土石坝填筑施工进度具有较大的风险,并伴随着施工成本风险的发生。在定义施工成本风险的基础上,构建了进度不确定条件下施工成本风险分析模型;探讨了施工成本不确定性及其分布,以及施工赶工成本分析计算方法;针对施工成本风险分析模型的特点,采用离散化方法,得到了施工成本风险计算公式。算例结果表明,在进度不确定条件下,施工成本存在较大的风险性,这在工程投标报价、施工管理决策中是不能忽略的。Earth dam construction,if influenced by uncertain factors such as meteorological condition,is often subjected to a great risk in construction progress and a risk in construction cost.In such cases,an appropriate cost-risk analysis model is needed to take various uncertain factors into account.In this study,construction cost risk was defined and a cost-risk analysis model with considerations of schedule uncertainty was developed.With a discussion on the uncertainty and distribution of construction cost,a calculation method of crash cost was also presented.A cost-risk formula was derived by the same discretization method as that in the cost-risk model.Case studies show that the uncertain construction delay that causes great risk to construction cost,should not be neglected in bidding or construction management decision-making.

关 键 词：水电工程管理 施工成本 风险分析 土石坝 工程进度 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]