我国园艺类农产品贸易顺差的可持续性分析  

Analysis on Sustainability of Trade Surplus of China's Horticultural Products

作　　者：万金[1] 祁春节[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,430070 [2]华中农业大学园艺经济研究所

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2011年第11期53-63,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项经费资助(编号CARS-07-07B);湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队计划项目"农产品流通体系及问题研究"(编号T200813)资助

摘　　要：我国农产品贸易已进入"逆差时代",而园艺类农产品仍保持顺差,其对平衡我国农产品贸易逆差的作用日益关键。本文以柑橘为例,采用1996-2009年间的贸易数据,利用市场广度、价格和数量的三维分解模型,对其贸易顺差来源进行了结构分解,研究了三者对总顺差的贡献程度,并由此分析了我国柑橘贸易顺差的可持续性。研究发现:市场广度顺差和数量顺差是总顺差的来源,价格基本上为逆差,但此结构并非始终稳定;以西班牙为参照,我国柑橘贸易顺差不具有可持续性;我国柑橘维持贸易顺差的途径是实现增长方式转变前提下的数量顺差和市场广度顺差的扩张,并适度调控价格顺差。China＇ s agricultural products trade has stepped into ＂deficit era＂ , while horticultural products trade maintains surplus as usual. The latter is becoming more important in trimming the deficit of agricultural products. However, is the trade surplus of China＇ s horticultural products sustainable？ This must be discussed. With the assistance of the trade data 1996-2009 on China＇ s citrus, by disassembling the trade surplus into market extensive margin, price margin and quantity margin, this paper analyses each of their effect on overall surplus and the sustainability of trade surplus. The major findings are＂ the market extensive margin and the quantity margin are the source of overall surplus while price margin is deficit, and that compared with Spain＇ s citrus trade, China＇ s surplus is unsustainable. The pathway of maintaining China＇ s citrus trade surplus must be based on the transformation of growth pattern, then increasing the market extensive margin and quantity margin and rationalizing price margin.

关 键 词：贸易顺差 市场广度顺差 价格顺差 数量顺差 可持续性 

分 类 号：F752.652[经济管理—国际贸易]