我国煤炭开采总量的ARMA模型研究  

Study on Prediction at China's Coal Production Quality Based on ARMA Model

作　　者：艾德春[1] 韩可琦[2] 

机构地区：[1]六盘水师范学院资源与矿业工程系,贵州六盘水553004 [2]中国矿业大学矿业学院,江苏徐州221008

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2011年第11期9-11,共3页Coal Technology

基　　金：六盘水师范学院科研基金启动项目(LPSSY201001);六盘水师范学院采矿工程特色专业建设点项目(LPSSYtszy201101);贵州省高层次人才特助经费资助项目(TZJF-2009-05)

摘　　要：建立了ARMA模型对我国煤炭消费总量进行了研究,意在指导我国煤炭开采总量。文章对煤炭消费序列进行了检验,建立了煤炭消费序列增量模型,选择了最优的ARMA模型,并对我国煤炭消费总量进行了预测,对预测结果进行分析研究,得出了重要结论,并提出了相应的措施和发展目标。To layout China＇s total amount of coal production, ARMA model was set up for the study of China＇s total amount of coal consumption. The paper test the coal consumption series, set up the model of increment of coal consumption, then select the optimal ARMA model. According to the model, the paper forecasted amount of coal consumption, get important conclusions for the analysis of forecasting result, at last put forward relevant measures and developing goal.

关 键 词：ARMA模型 单位根检验 相关系数 

分 类 号：TD80[矿业工程—矿山开采]