重大能源工程事故定量风险评价思路与方法研究——以三高气田钻完井重大事故为例  

Methods of Studying Quantitative Risk Assessment of Accidents in Big Energy Projects

作　　者：孙德强[1] 许金华[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《中国能源》2011年第10期26-29,47,共5页Energy of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.70825001);国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAB27B05-01)

摘　　要：风险评价研究以分析三高气田(高压、高产、高含硫)钻完井事故的机理及原因,建立钻完井事故的事故树概率模型及概率计算,通过基于钻完井事故后果的环境风洞物理模拟实验和三维数值模拟定量确定空间硫化氢浓度值。在此基础上进行事故的个人风险及社会风险评价,这种风险定量评价方法将对国内外同类油气田的安全开发有一定的指导意义。In order to make risk assessments, it is firstly necessary for us to analyze the mechanisms and cause of three-high gas field （high pressure, high production and high sulphur） drilling and completing well accidents, and then to build a model of fault tree probability and make probability calculation. Afterwards, it works out the concentration of H2S by using environmental wind tunnel to simulate the condition of drilling and completing wells after accidents and through three-dimension numerical modeling. On the above basis, this paper makes an individual risk and social risk assessment of accidents. Such a risk assessment method will be of practical implication for safe explorations of similar oil and gas fields.

关 键 词：三高气田 钻完井事故 风险评价 事故树 概率计算 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]