中美双边贸易变动对两国经济周期同步性的影响:1979—2010  

The influence of the changes in Sino-US bilateral trade on the synchronization of their economic cycles:1979—2010

作　　者：王悦[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《经济学家》2011年第11期90-98,共9页Economist

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(项目编号:09BJY002)《美国金融危机对中国的影响及应对措施研究》;2009年四川大学青年教师科研启动基金(哲社类)项目(项目编号:09QN007)《当前金融危机与经济周期的互动关系研究》的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文首先对1979—2010年间中美两国经济周期波动的同步性与因果关系进行分析,接着对中美双边贸易变动对两国经济周期波动同步性的影响进行了理论与计量分析,并在此基础上建立中美双边贸易与两国经济周期同步性之间的回归方程。回归结果表明:不同阶段中美双边贸易变动对两国经济周期同步性的影响是不一样的,其中,1979—1989年间,由贸易联系导致两国经济周期同步性波动的可能性很小;而1990—1999、2000—2005以及2006—2010年间,中美两国贸易密度每增加1%,两国经济周期波动同步性指数会分别增加2.993%、0.443%与5.730%。First, this paper analyzes the synchronization of Sino - US economic cycle fluctuations taking place in the midst of 1979--2010 and the reasons that caused the synchronization of its kind, and then touches upon what kind of impact the changes of bilateral trade can be brought forth to synchronization of Sino - US economic cycle fluctuations from the perfective of theory and econometrics respectively. Thus, a regression equation between Sino - US bilateral trade and economic cycle synchronization based on it is constructed. Regression results show that the changes in different stages of the bilateral trade will bring different impacts to two countries＇ economic cycle synchronization. From 1979 to 1989, the possibility of Sino- US economic cycle synchronicity fluctuation led by related trade was little, while the two countries＇ economic cycle synchronicity volatility index increased respectively by 2. 993%, 0. 443% and 5. 730% with every 1% increase in Sino - US trade density between 1990-1999 and 2000-2010.

关 键 词：双边贸易 贸易密度 经济周期同步性 

分 类 号：F113.7[经济管理—国际贸易]