夏季温湿指数与气象敏感电力负荷的研究  

Research on Summer Temperature-Humidity Index and Weather Sensitive Electric Load

作　　者：曹磊[1] 祖蓓[1] 

机构地区：[1]保定供电公司,河北保定071000

出　　处：《现代电力》2011年第5期41-45,共5页Modern Electric Power

摘　　要：为了深入了解夏季电力日峰荷与气象因子之间的关系,从负荷资料中分离出随气象因子变化的气象敏感负荷,在考虑气象因子对气象敏感负荷的累积效应基础上,建立了气象敏感负荷变化率与气象因子间的关系模型。对2004～2005年某市夏季气象敏感负荷与温湿指数、日平均温度、日最大温度进行的灰色关联分析结果表明:温湿指数是对夏季气象敏感负荷影响最大的关联变量。在此基础上建立了夏季气象敏感负荷与温湿指数的三次多项式模型,计算分析了气象敏感负荷变化率与温湿指数的关系,为电网负荷的预测和运行调度提供依据。In order to analyze the relationship between the summer electric daily peak load and meteorological factors, weather sensitive load,which is influenced by weather conditions,is isolated from the load database.Based on the consideration of cumulative effect of weather sensitive load caused by meteorological factors,relationship model between change rate of weather sensitive load and meteorological factors is built.Then the grey incidence between summer weather sensitive load for a city from2004 to 2005 and temperature-humidity index,daily mean temperature and daily highest temperature are analyzed.The results show that temperature-humidity index is the biggest relation variable that influence summer weather sensitive load.On this basis,a three-multinomial model of summer weather sensitive load and temperature-humidity index is established and the relation between temperature-humidity index and the change rate of meteorological load is also calculated. The work in this paper is reference to the load forecasting and dispatching.

关 键 词：累积效应 灰色关联度 气象敏感负荷 气象敏感负荷变化率 温湿指数 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]