基于全寿命周期的电网工程项目成本分析  

Research on Investment of Power Grid Project Based on Life Cycle

作　　者：陈茜[1] 张建华[1] 李晓黎[1] 杨京燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《现代电力》2011年第5期80-84,共5页Modern Electric Power

摘　　要：针对传统电网经济评价只考虑初期成本的投入,提出基于全寿命周期的成本分析方法,对电网建设项目投资时机进行量化评价。从项目投资的长期经济效益出发,使全寿命周期相对成本最小,其核心问题是全寿命周期成本(LCC)模型的建立。按寿命周期将成本模型的建立分为3个阶段:建设期成本、运行期成本、期末残值,并且重点考虑不同方案之间建设期成本对应的技术和设备选择差异导致相应运行期成本之间的差异。同时,采用敏感性分析法寻找出对全寿命周期成本最大的不确定性因素为负荷预测值及投资建设时间的选取,对今后电网工程项目投资建设具有一定的指导意义。In view of the limitation of the traditional eco- nomic evaluation of power grid which considers only initial cost,a cost analysis method based on the life cycle for power grid project investment is proposed.By considering the longterm economic benefit of the project investment,analysis aims at minimizing relative life cycle cost,and the core problem is to establish the life cycle cost（LCC）model.According to the life cycle,the model will be divided into three phases：the construction cost,the operation cost and the final salvage value.In addition,techniques for construction cost between different strategies and the different operation cost caused by equipments selection are mainly considered. Meanwhile,by using of the sensitivity analysis method,it is found out that the biggest uncertainty factor that influence life cycle cost is load prediction value and the selection of investment time,which has important directive significance to the power grid project.

关 键 词：全寿命周期成本 电网 曲线拟合 时间价值 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TM63[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]