1995-2008年中国大陆电力消费量时空动态  

Understanding Electricity Consumption Changes in Chinese Mainland from 1995 to 2008 by Using DMSP/OLS Stable Nighttime Light Time Series Data

作　　者：李通[1,2] 何春阳[1,2] 杨洋[1,2] 刘志锋[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875

出　　处：《地理学报》2011年第10期1403-1412,共10页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB950901);国家自然科学基金项目(40971059)~~

摘　　要：电力消费量是定量衡量电力消费状况的一个基本指标。及时、准确地获取电力消费量的时空动态信息,对于合理配置中国电力资源具有重要的理论和现实意义。利用DMSP/OLS稳定夜间灯光时间序列数据,在县级尺度上模拟重建了中国大陆1995-2008年电力消费的空间格能够局比,较揭可示靠了地中反国映大中陆国同大期陆电力19消95费-20量08的年时电空力动消态费过量程的。时结空果动表态明,:精①度利达用到D70M%S左P/O右L,S数具据有显一定,的占可全行国性总。面②积1中0.国69大%陆的京19津95唐-20、08沪年宁电杭力、消珠费三量角以、中山低东消半费岛级、别辽为中主南,地但区空、间四分川布盆差地异等明大六陆大城19市95群-20地08区年是电中力国消电费力量消表费现最出为比集较中明的显区的域增,长共趋消势耗,了电中力国消3费9.2量3%呈的明电显力增资长源趋。势③的中区国域面积占全国总面积的64.00%。Electricity consumption（EC） is one of the basic indexes for the evaluation of electric power situation.Obtaining timely and accurate spatio-temporal changes of EC is significant for reasonable allocation of electric power resources.In this study,EC simulation model was developed by using the DMSP/OLS stable nighttime light time series data.The model was used to reconstruct the spatial patterns of EC in Chinese mainland at the county level from 1995 to 2008.In addition,the spatio-temporal changes of EC were analyzed.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows：（1） The electricity consumption simulation model was reliable to represent the spatio-temporal changes of EC in Chinese mainland with an about 70% accuracy.（2） The EC of most regions in Chinese mainland was at low to medium level with marked temporal and spatial variations,while 49.72% of the high level EC was concentrated in eastern China.The six urban agglomerations（Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region,Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou region,Pearl River Delta,Shandong Peninsula,middle-south of Liaoning Province and Sichuan Basin） accounted for 10.69% of the total area in Chinese mainland,and consumed 39.23% of electricity.（3） The EC of most regions in Chinese mainland increased from 1995 to 2008,and 64% of the regions showed a significant increase in EC.The EC of eastern and central China showed a medium-speed increase from 1995 to 2008,being 61.62% and 80.65%,respectively,while the EC of 75.69% of western China showed no significant increase.Specifically,the EC showed a high-speed increase in the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou region,Pearl River Delta,Shandong Peninsula,being 77.27%,89.35% and 66.72%,respectively.The EC showed a medium-speed increase in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region（71.12%） and middle-south of Liaoning Province（72.13%）,while 56.34% of Sichuan Basin showed no significant increase.

关 键 词：DMSP/OLS 电力消费量 时空动态 中国大陆 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]