区域水生态承载力的量化研究与应用  

Quantitative study and application of regional water ecological carrying capacity

作　　者：张万顺[1] 齐迪[1] 幸娅[1] 彭虹[2] 杨寅群[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2011年第5期560-564,共5页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家重大专项水专项(编号:2008ZX07526-004)

摘　　要：分别采用模糊数学的隶属度方法和系统动力学方法,考虑了水生态承载力评价因子和评价过程的不确定性,对区域水生态承载力的评价进行量化研究.根据常州市武进区的水生态承载力的评价结果可知,研究区的水生态承载力属于不可承载状态,区内的人口、经济规模已超过承载力的临界值,亟需改善水质条件和生态环境状况,使经济社会得以持续、良性发展.通过对比2种评价方法可知,隶属度评价水生态承载力的方法简便、易行,系统动力学则具有系统、综合的优点,考虑的因素较全面,在水生态承载力量化研究中可根据不同的条件和具体情况选用不同的方法.Considering the uncertainty in evaluation of regional water ecological carrying capacity,the membership in fuzzy mathematics and system dynamics are used to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity.According to evaluation results in Wujin district of Changzhou,the regional water ecological carrying capacity belongs to poor level of water ecological carrying capacity.The size of GDP and population in the region exceed the threshold.It is an urgency to improve water quality and ecological environment to make a sustainable and sound development in economy and society.By comparing the two evaluation methods,the membership method is simple;and system dynamics is more systematic and comprehensive.It is appropriate to choose different methods depending on the different conditions in quantitative research in water ecological carrying capacity.

关 键 词：水生态承载力 量化方法 隶属度 系统动力学 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]