Clayton Copula模式下的深圳市洪潮组合风险率  

Risk probability of combination of flood and tide based on Clayton Copula function in Shenzhen

作　　者：杨星 蔡开玺 杨虎 

机构地区：[1]江苏省水利科学研究院,江苏南京210017 [2]深圳市水务规划设计院,广东深圳518001 [3]江苏省水利工程科技咨询有限公司,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2011年第5期590-593,共4页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：深圳市水务发展中长期战略研究项目资助(编号:SZCG2010021725)

摘　　要：按不同的设计标准设计洪水时,河口可能发生各种频率的潮位.按不同的设计标准设计潮位时,河道上游也可能发生各种频率的洪水,因此需要知道当满足某一频率设计洪水条件时,超过其组合潮位发生的概率,以及当满足某一频率设计潮位条件时,超过其组合洪水发生的概率,将这个发生概率作为洪潮组合的风险率.基于ClaytonCopula连接函数构建了深圳市洪潮遭遇组合的风险分析模型,得到了深圳市洪潮组合的风险率,可用于深圳地区河道防洪治理.本文的风险分析模型具有通用性,也可以将其应用到其他地区做此类问题的分析.Under the conditions of design flood with different design standard,the different tidal levels in estuary area may occur.Under the conditions of design tidal level with different design standards,the different floods in upper river may occur.The occurrence probability of combination of flood and tide is important for engineering design and the occurrence probability beyond design standards is called risk probability.In this paper,Clayton Copula function is used to construct the risk analysis model of the combination of flood and tide;and the risk probability in Shenzhen is obtained that could be used for river flood control regulation.The risk analysis model based on Copula function could also be available for the other city.

关 键 词：设计标准 洪潮组合 概率 风险分析 COPULA函数 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]