中国电力需求与行业因素——基于高耗能行业的实证分析  

Industry factor analysis of electricity consumption in China——Based on energy-intensive industries

作　　者：柳瑞禹[1] 叶子菀[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2011年第5期638-644,共7页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(编号:201110501020003)

摘　　要：为从行业层面出发探求电力需求微观影响因素,对影响我国高耗能产业用电量的因素建立了多变量VAR模型,进行格兰杰因果分析,并利用2004-2010年筛选后的数据对高耗能行业用电量影响因素进行了回归分析,建立了广义差分回归模型.结果表明:我国高耗能用电走势与行业主要产品产量存在长期均衡关系,高耗能行业用电仍然是全社会用电的风向标.为降低高能耗行业的污染排放,节约一次能源的使用,提高全社会能源利用效率,节能减排战略的实施刻不容缓.This paper investigated factors influencing on electricity consumption of energy-intensive industries from level of industries,established multi-variable VAR model to conform driving forces,and estimated these variables using time series data during 2004-2010,and then estimated the generalized difference regression model.The results indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and main product quantity in energy-intensive industries;and（electricity consumption of energy-intensive industries is still the wind vane of the whole society.It is imperative to implement the strategy of energy conservation and emissions reduction for reducing energy industry emissions,saving primary energy use and increasing the whole social energy utilization efficiency.

关 键 词：高耗能行业 电力消费 因素分析 格兰杰因果关系 广义差分 

分 类 号：TM-9[电气工程] F426[经济管理—产业经济]