数值模拟方法在地震预测研究中应用的初步探讨(Ⅰ)  

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION METHODS TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION RESEARCH(Ⅰ)

作　　者：邓志辉[1] 宋键[1] 孙君秀[1] 陶京玲[1] 胡勐乾[1] 马晓静[1] 姜辉[1] 李红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地震地质》2011年第3期660-669,共10页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：中国地震局地质研究所基本科研业务专项(IGCEA1001);国家自然科学基金(40841016;40372131;40702056)共同资助

摘　　要：在地震危险性分析和预测研究中,自20世纪80年代初开始引入数值模拟方法以来,随着科学技术的不断进步,经历了由二维到三维,由线性到非线性,由弹性到粘弹性,由单场到多场耦合分析的改进和发展。地震的孕育和发生是复杂的物理过程,地震前的异常表现更是各种各样,但地震前的应变能量积累是地震发生的必要条件。地震预测分析必须首先考虑应变能量积累的状态。由于地球内部的难入性,直接测量震源深处的应力应变是很困难的事情,利用数值分析方法,建立地壳上地幔三维动力学模型,模拟岩层变形过程,是当前研究地壳能量转移、积累最有效的方法之一。Earthquake preparation and occurrence is a complex physical process.Although the earthquake abnormalities are varied,the strain energy accumulation is requisite before an earthquake.Earthquake prediction analysis must consider the strain energy accumulation process.As hard to go into the Earth＇s interior,direct measurement of stress and strain in deep focus is very difficulty.The use of numerical analysis,which constructs three-dimensional dynamic models of the crust and upper mantle to simulate the rock deformation process,is currently one of the most effective methods to study the crustal energy transfer and accumulation.The simulation result of current crustal deformation is consistent with the existing GPS data around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and its surrounding areas,in that the crustal horizontal displacement field of the eastern Tibetan Plateau rotates clockwise around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis.Current effective stress concentration areas mainly distribute along the block boundary fault belts around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis,especially along the southeast section of Jiali Fault,Moto Fault,Apalong Fault,India-Myanmar subduction zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan border region.It should be noted the risk of future strong earthquakes in these areas.In the adjacent interconnected tectonic areas,the blocks and faults are interrelated and interacted each other.When an earthquake occurs in a region,the rapid displacement and deformation of rock will inevitably lead to displacement and deformation of the associated blocks and faults;strain energy will transfer from one region to others.The numerical simulation results of deformation process in the Capital area from 1989 to 1998 clearly show that the high strain energy concentration region shifted from Datong area where 1989 earthquake（MS 5.8）occurred to Zhangbei area where 1998 earthquake happened.It illustrates that the application of numerical simulation analysis method may help us predict the possible strain energy transfer process,thus,providing

关 键 词：地震预测 数值模拟 等效应力 应变能密度 

分 类 号：P315.61[天文地球—地震学]