“电脑”型产品需求预测的Gompertz模型与随机模拟  

Forecasting computer products demand on Gompertz model and stochastics simulation

作　　者：谢小良[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院信息学院,长沙410205

出　　处：《计算机工程与应用》2011年第30期230-233,共4页Computer Engineering and Applications

基　　金：湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(No.08YBB198);湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(No.08C470)

摘　　要："电脑"型产品包括手机、电视机、电脑等无形性变质产品,这种产品需求波动性大,随机性强、历史数据失效或根本不存在历史数据,其需求量的预测往往比常规品更为困难。介绍了"电脑"型产品需求预测的Gompertz模型,并应用这个模型对2010年长沙市电脑需求情况进行了预测,通过计算机随机模拟,对2010年长沙市手机产品的需求量也进行了预测,取得了较好的效果。为进一步研究"电脑"型产品库存控制问题提供了较好的基础。The computer type product,including the intangible products of metamorphism such as mobile telephone,TV and computer et al.,has the character of strong volatility and randomness.In addition,the historical data of this type product may be invalid and/or does not exist.It is more difficult to forecast the demand of this type product than the normal product.This paper introduces the Gompertz model that can forecast the demand of computer type product.Beside,this paper forecasts the demand of computer of Changsha in 2010 using the Gompertz model.As the same time,it forcasts the demand of mobile telephone of Changsha in 2010 by computer random simulation and gets the perfect results.This study supplies the foundation for the further research of inventory control of computer type product.

关 键 词：易逝品 无形性变质 随机需求 预测 Gompertz模型 随机模拟 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]