相似预报法在电离层TEC短期预报中的应用  

Application of Analog Prediction Method on Ionospheric TEC Short-term Forecast

作　　者：翁利斌[1] 方涵先[1] 解妍琼[1] 杨升高[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院,南京211101

出　　处：《空间科学学报》2011年第6期747-753,共7页Chinese Journal of Space Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40505005);解放军理工大学气象学院预研基金项目共同资助

摘　　要：引入相似离度衡量样本间的相似程度,并利用相似预报法对厦门一个GPS台站2004年电离层TEC观测数据进行了24 h预报试验.结果表明,预报相对误差与地磁活动水平密切相关,地磁扰动条件下相对误差明显高于地磁平静时刻;预报相对平均误差为18.022%,地磁扰动时为44.896%,地磁平静条件下为11.676%;预报相对误差在10%,20%,30%,40%以内的累积比例分别为38.209%,65.075%,84.984%,90.448%.如果使用中纬地区或地磁平静期间的电离层TEC数据,预报效果会更好.Analog Deviation is introduced to evaluate the analog degree between two samples, and tests of Analog Prediction Method for 24h ahead forecast of ionospheric TEC detected by Xiamen station in 2004 have been conducted in this paper. The results reveal that the relative error has good relationship with the geomagnetic activities, and it will be larger under geomagnetically disturbed conditions than undisturbed ones obviously, reaching i00~ indeed; as a whole, the relative error is 18.022%, 44.896% and II.676~0 under conditions of geomagnetic disturbances and undisturbed respectively. The cumulative proportions of relative error under 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% are 38.209%, 65.075%, 84.984% and 90.448% respectively. The Analog Prediction Method is based on the autocorrelation method, with the observed ionospheric TEC to predict, but only choosing the 24, 48, 72 h data which will have best analog with the predictions. The result of forecast will be much more better on condition of using ionospheric TEC in mid-latitude or under geomagnetic undisturbed conditions.

关 键 词：电离层电子总含量 短期预报 相似预报法 相似离度 

分 类 号：P352[天文地球—空间物理学]