我国大气可吸入颗粒物污染对人群死亡率的影响  

Association between inhalable particulate matter and mortality in China： a Meta-analysis

作　　者：黄雯[1] 王洪源[1] 王旗[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学医学部公共卫生学院毒理学系,100191

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2011年第11期1031-1035,共5页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：基金项目：国家“十一五”科技支撑计划（2007BAC03A10）

摘　　要：目的综合相关文献并以暴露一反应关系的形式探讨中国可吸入颗粒物（PM10）污染对人群死亡率的影响。方法收集符合纳入标准的中国大气颗粒物污染与居民总死亡率、心脑血管疾病死亡率、呼吸系统疾病死亡率关系的文献，共纳人21篇文献。采用Stata9．0软件进行统计分析，提取PM10与人群死亡率的暴露一反应系数，利用固定或随机效应模型合并效应值，并对结果进行敏感性分析、发表偏倚检验与校正。结果我国大气PM10每上升10ug／m3，人群每日总死亡率、心脑血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡率的相对危险度（RR）分别为1．0033（95％CI：1．0022～1．0044）、1．0045（95％CI：1．0029—1．0062）和1．0056（95％CI：1．0033～1．0079）；校正发表偏倚后，人群每日总死亡率、心脑血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡率的RR值降为1．0012（95％CI：1．0002—1．0022）、1．0011（95％CI：0．9996～1．0026）和1．0023（95％CI：1．0001—1．0045）。结论大气中PM10浓度的上升会导致我国人群每日总死亡率、心脑血管疾病死亡率和呼吸系统疾病死亡率的增加。Objective Synthesize the relevant research and then discuss the influence of inhalable particulate matter （PM10） on mortality by exposure-response analysis. Methods The eligible research papers which studied the association between PM10 and overall mortality of residents, the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and the mortality of respiratory diseases; and 21 pieces of the papers were adopted in this study. The papers were analyzed by Stata 9. 0 software, and the exposure-response coefficient of PM10 and mortality were extracted. The effect size was amalgamated by fixed or random effects, and the sensitivity analysis and publication bias of the results were detected and adjusted. Results Each 10 ug/m3 increase of PM10 was associated with estimated relative risk （RR） of daily all-course mortality, the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and the mortality of respiratory diseases at 1. 0033 （95%CI： 1.0022 - 1.0044）, 1.0045 （95%CI： 1.0029 - 1.0062） and 1.0056 （95%CI： 1.0033 - 1. 0079） , respectively. After the publication bias was adjusted, the RR of daily all-cause, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory diseases mortality was reduced to 1. 0012 （95%CI： 1. 0002 - 1.0022）, 1.0011 （95%CI： 0.9996 - 1.0026） and 1.0023 （95%CI： 1.0001 - 1.0045） . Conclusion The increase of the concentration of PM10 led to the increase of the daily all-course mortality, the mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and the mortality of respiratory diseases.

关 键 词：空气污染 死亡率 环境暴露 Meta分析[文献类型] 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学] X513[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]