多智能体模拟在土地变化预测中的应用  

Application of Multi-agent Simulation in Land Change Prediction

作　　者：杜守帅[1] 宋婷 马兴波[3] 

机构地区：[1]江南大学设计学院,江苏无锡214122 [2]日本光正株式会社,上海200120 [3]南阳理工学院建筑系,河南南阳473000

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第10期1510-1516,共7页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

摘　　要：伴随着城市建设的快速发展,城市中心及周边的绿地规模正在逐年减小,城市内部绿地环境在逐步恶化.因此对城市建设用地和绿地的变化进行定量的把握,对其变化进行预测和评价是非常重要的.以日本大分市植田地区为例,建立多智能体模型(MAS),计算各智能体的变化概率,确立各智能体的分类类型,进而对对象地区的土地变化进行模拟,并验证其有效性.再以此模型为基准,对将来的城市建成区和绿地环境变化进行预测模拟,提出结合人口要素对土地变化进行模拟预测的意见和方法.Based on a study of the Ueda Area of Oita in Japan,a multi-agent system（MAS） was established.The change probability of each agent was calculated,and the distribution type of each agent was identified.Then,a simulation study was made of the land change of target areas and the results were verified.Based on this model,the change in future build-up area and green land was simulated and predicted.The suggestion and method to simulate land change in conjunction with population elements were proposed.

关 键 词：多智能体 土地变化 美国陆地探测卫星影像 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]