降水及人类活动对阜平流域径流的影响  

Impacts of Precipitation Changes and Human Activities on Runoff of Fuping Basin

作　　者：陈伏龙[1,2] 何新林[1,2] 王薇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832003 [2]现代节水灌溉兵团重点实验室,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2011年第10期28-30,53,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家"973"计划项目(2010CB951004);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51069011)

摘　　要：为了研究近年来气候变化和人类活动影响条件下的阜平流域径流的演变规律,采用5 a滑动平均法和线性回归法,对阜平流域径流量、变化趋势及影响因素进行了分析,并利用降水径流经验统计模型估算了降水变化和人类活动对流域年径流量的影响程度。结果表明:降水量与径流量有一致性的变化趋势,降水量下降的趋势不明显,而径流量呈显著减少的趋势;1969—1979年、1980—1989年、1990—1999年、2000—2005年,受人类活动影响所减少的年均径流量分别占径流总减少量的21.04%、46.05%、58.30%、54.93%,受降水变化影响所减少的年均径流量分别占径流总减少量的78.96%、53.95%、41.70%、45.07%;随着年代的推移,人类活动对径流的影响逐渐增大,而降水变化的影响逐渐减小,20世纪80年代以后,人类活动导致径流量减少的贡献率要大于降水因素。For studying the runoff evolvement rule of Fuping Basin under the conditions of climate change and human activities,the article analyzes runoff,precipitation and human activities with the five glide average method and linearity regression method,and uses the precipitation-runoff experience statistical model to calculate the effect of precipitation changes and human activities to the annual runoff.The results show that precipitation change is coincident with the runoff change.The runoff declines obviously compared with the precipitation.The article analyzes soil utilization in the effect of human activities in recent 20 years through the remote sensing images of 1980 and 2000.The runoff declines 21.04% in the effect of human activities during the period of 1969 to 1979,46.05% during the period of 1980 to 1989,58.30% from 1990 to 1999,54.93% from 2000 to 2005.The runoff declines 78.96% in the effect of precipitation changes from 1969 to 1979,53.95% from 1980 to 1989,41.70% from 1990 to 1999,45.07% from 2000 to 2005.The effect of human activities to the runoff increased and the effect of precipitation change to the runoff decreased.The contribution rate of human activities is greater than that of the precipitationsince 1980s.

关 键 词：径流量 降水变化 人类活动 阜平流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]