Sea level change and forecast in the future — climate of the past,today and the future  

海平面变化与未来预测——气候的过去、现在和未来(英文)

作　　者：岳军[1,2,3] DONG yue 陈满春[5] 韩芳[1,3] 段焕春[1,3] 王国明[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市海洋地质勘查中心,天津300170 [2]国土资源部天津地质矿产研究所,天津300170 [3]天津华北地质勘查局地质研究所,天津300170 [4]University of Texas at San Antonio, Texas 78249-1644, USA [5]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171

出　　处：《Marine Science Bulletin》2011年第2期33-50,共18页海洋通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Foundation of China(40940025);National Science Foundation of Tianjin(07ZCGYSF02400,09JCYBJC07400);Program of China"973"(2007CB411807);Open Fund of the Key Lab of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry,SOA(GCMAC0806);National Natural ScienceFoundation(41006002)

摘　　要：The sea-level change is resulted from superposition of sun, moon and other planeries, and earth itself, biological process, atmosphere and oceanography, as well as artificial actions. As a result, the sea level change is really a sensitive integral variation value of many variations, or a combined function of coupling effects of various big systems. Therefore the above mentioned superposed action of different systems and the coupling effect of sun earth and biological aspects may be called as sun earth biological coupling effect system. Based on this hypothesis, the corresponding sun dynamic, air dynamic, water dynamic and earth dynamic conceptional models are established in order to research the multiple coupling effects and feedback machsnism between these big systems. In order to determine the relations, effectness and coherent relation of different variations, the quantity, analysis is conducted through collective variation and stage division. The quantity analysis indicates that the earths spindle rotation speed is the dynamic mechanism controlling the sea level change of fluctuation. The change rate of sea level in the world is ＋1.32 ＋ 0.22 mm/a, while the sea level change rate in China is only＋1.39 ＋ 0.26 mm/a in average. If take the CO2 content as the climate marker, eight cold stages （periods） are grouped out since two hundreds years AC. The extreme cold of the eighth cold stage started approximately at 1850 years AC. and if the stage from the extreme cold to extreme warm is determined as long as 200 years, the present ongoing warm stage will end at about 2050 years, there after the temperature will begin to tower. If the stage between cold and warm extremes lasts for 250 years, then the temperature will become lower at about 2100 year. Until to that time, the sea-level is estimated to raise ＋7 - ＋11 ＋ 3.5 cm again, and there after, the sea level will begin the new lowering trend. In the same time, the climate will enter into next new cold stage subsequently.海平面变化是由于太阳、月球等几大行星的天体作用、地球本身作用、生物作用、大气作用和海洋作用及人为因素等叠加作用的结果。所以,海平面变化是许多变数中一个敏感的积分变量,或是各大领域系统耦合效应的一个组合函数。为此,可将上述各个方面的叠加作用和耦合影响称为"天地生耦合效应系统"。并据此建立了相应的日动型、气动型、水动型和地动型等概念模型,旨在研究几大作用之间的多重耦合效应和反馈机制。通过集合变量,采用了时段划分的方法进行定量分析,以确定各变量之间的联系性、有效性和相关性,初步获得地球自转速度是控制海平面变化的动力机制;世界海平面速率为+1.32±0.22 mm/a,中国海平面速率为+1.39±0.26mm/a。以CO2含量为气候指标,划分出了公元200年以来的八个冷段(冷期)。第Ⅷ冷段极大值大约出现在公元1850年前后,若按冷暖极值距200年计算,则由目前正在发展的暖期,将在公元2050年前后结束,而后开始降温;若按冷暖极值距250年间隔计算,将在公元2100年前后开始降温,彼时,世界海平面将上升+7～11±3.5 cm左右(在气候暖期的过程中),且其后海平面将呈下降趋势,与此同时,气候将进入下一个新的冷期(亦即第Ⅸ冷段)。

关 键 词：Sun earth biological coupling effect system sea-level change mechanism change rate of the sea-level climate cold stage forecast of the sea-level changes in the future 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]