中国通货膨胀成因的量化分析  

The Quantitative Analysis of the Causes of inflation in China

作　　者：吴军[1] 肖威[1] 涂竞[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学 [2]对外经贸大学商务部

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2011年第11期15-20,共6页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：对外经济贸易大学“211工程”三期重点学科建设项目《WTO与提高我国对外开放水平--经济全球化背景下金融危机的国际传导与防范》(立项第33036号)资助

摘　　要：理清通货膨胀的不同成因构成并将其量化分解是管理当局有效抑制通货膨胀的基础。本文依据结构性理论,在构建量化分解通货膨胀成因理论模型的基础上,采用统计学的因子分析法对构成CPI的31个小类子成分进行实证研究,分解出源于需求和供给两个层面的通货膨胀程度指标。统计分析结果表明,进入本世纪后的通货膨胀主要是由需求层面的货币、信用因素拉上的,单纯来源于供给层面的因素所引发的价格结构性上涨不会引致较高的通货膨胀问题,而2010年后的通货膨胀问题主要来源于需求层面。Clarifying the different causes of inflation followed by quantified decomposition, is the precondition for the management authorities to effectively control inflation. This paper builds a theoretical model of inflation causes based on the structural theory, uses factor analysis method to do the research of the 31 Sub-components of CPI, and separates the components at both demand end and supply end. The conclusion is： starting from this century, the inflation has been mainly caused by money and credit factors, while simply price rise at supply end did not lead to high inflation. After 2010, the inflation is mainly caused by demand factors, and we point out that quantitative monetary policy tools aim at incremental inhibition, which are useful in the short term, but will lead to the accumulation of underlying inflationary pressure in the rnoclillrn and lone term. thus threatening the financial security of China.

关 键 词：通货膨胀成因 通货膨胀结构模型 因子分析法 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]