估计汇率形成机制的一种新方法:以人民币汇率为例  

A New Approach of Estimating Exchange Rate System: RMB Exchange Rate as an Example

作　　者：周阳[1] 唐齐鸣[2] 

机构地区：[1]济南大学经济学院 [2]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2011年第11期39-47,共9页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：教育部"国际金融危机应对研究"应急课题资助;项目编号:2009JYJR059

摘　　要：本文在估计一篮子名义锚货币方法的基础上,引入汇率市场压力(EMP)变量对传统的模型进行了扩展,从而采用一种新的方法来全面考察一国的汇率政策与汇率安排。本文基于人民币汇率的经验分析表明,人民币汇率升值压力主要表现为外汇储备的增加,汇率本身以及利率也是调整我国汇率市场压力的重要方式;在人民币汇率所参考的一篮子名义锚货币中,欧元的地位显著提升,它对人民币汇率的动态走势具有明显影响,人民币汇率的弹性与相对灵活性显著增强;在国际金融危机的背景下,我国事实上采用了盯住美元的汇率制度安排,人民币保持了与美元汇率的基本稳定,这与著名的"角点假设"一致。Based on the method of estimating the nominal anchor in a currency basket, this paper introduces the exchange market pressure variable to extend the traditional model, and uses a new approach to investigate a country＇s exchange rate policy and arrangement. The empirical analysis indicates that the HMB appreciation pressure is usually reflected in the increase of reserves, while the appreciation and the interest rate are also important ways to adjust the exchange market pressure. The Euro＇s status has been significantly promoted in the currency basket, which has obvious impact on RMB＇s dynamic trend, with RMB exchange rate＇s elasticity and relative flexibility significantly strengthened. During the financial crisis, our country in fact adopted dollar pegging exchange rate arrangement, ensuring relatively stable RMB exchange rate against U.S. dollar, which is consistent with the famous comers hypothesis.

关 键 词：汇率形成机制 汇率市场压力 名义锚 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]