农业干旱预警研究现状及发展趋势  

Review on the agricultural drought early warning and its development tendency

作　　者：张晓煜[1,2] 杨晓光[2] 李茂松[3] 张学艺[1] 韩颖娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [3]中国农业科学研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第11期18-22,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：科技部社会公益项目(2005DIB3J103);国家科技支撑计划(2006BAD04B07);公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200803028)部分研究内容资助

摘　　要：在分析国内外干旱预警研究现状的基础上,分析农业干旱成灾过程胁迫、成灾过程,指出国内现有农业干旱预警研究存在的不足。运用灾害社会工程学理论,综合分析孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体、灾情等四方面对旱情的可能影响,探讨未来农业干旱预警发展方向和研究方法,提出农业干旱预警体系建设的基本思路,为进一步开展干旱预警提供参考,为政府减轻和预防干旱灾害提供决策依据。In order to effectively prevent and reduct the losses of drought,and to provid scientific evidence for local government making decision and arranging policy,current situation of study on drought early warning at home and abroad were reviewed in this paper.Based on the analysis of the progress of drought stress and drought development,the existing problems of drought study were analyzed.The possible effects of disasters breeding environment,formative factor,disaster-affected body and hazards on drought development were analyzed by using system theory of disaster.The research direction and research method of drought were also discussed and a new thought were put forward to establish the system of drought early warning.It can also provide a reference for better study on drought early warning.

关 键 词：干旱 农业干旱 预警 灾害系统 发展趋势 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]