基于格兰杰因果检验的陕西省国际旅游消费与地区经济增长关系研究  

A granger causality analysis on tourism and economic growth of Shaanxi

作　　者：郑鹏[1] 马耀峰[1] 王洁洁[1] 李天顺[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第12期190-195,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40771058&40901077&41001077);西安市社会科学基金(10W09);陕西师范大学研究生培养创新基金(2010CXB007);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(09SZZD06)资助

摘　　要：改革开放以来,陕西省的国际旅游消费与国民生产总值均获得了快速的发展。文中依据1978-2008年的相关统计数据,采用Eviews6.0软件,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系方法检验两者之间的关系,并建立两者间的推拉关系模型。研究结果显示:陕西国际旅游消费与地方经济存在着协整关系,且国际旅游消费是地方经济增长的原因;陕西国际旅游消费水平普遍较低,购物、娱乐和其它费用却增长迅速,这使得消费结构高级化指数不断增高,也意味着国际旅游消费结构日趋合理;以陕西国际旅游消费为自变量,国民生产总值为因变量,建立推拉方程,边际弹性分析显示,国际旅游消费每增长1亿元,推动陕西国民生产总值增加8.9232亿元,国际旅游消费对地方经济拉动的潜力巨大。Since reform and opening,Shaanxi Province gained rapid development in both tourism and economy.Based on relevant statistics data in 1978-2008,using Eviews6.0 software,the authors applied cointegration and Granger causality to test the relationship between tourism and economy,and establish a push and pull model which is about tourism and economic.The results showed that： ①there is cointegration between the development of tourism and the local economy in Shaanxi,that is,a long-term stable relationship exists among inbound tourism,domestic tourism and GDP;② inbound tourism and domestic tourism are the reasons of GDP growth that can promote the development of tourism in Shaanxi,and inbound tourism for promoting economic development in Shaanxi Province is better than that of domestic tourism;③ the gross national product increase is the reason of domestic tourism growth,not the reason for the growth of inbound tourism,local economic development stimulates the domestic tourism obviously.

关 键 词：格兰杰因果关系 协整分析 旅游业 经济增长 陕西省 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]