基于自适应临界状态的交通流运营安全评价  

Safety Audit of Traffic Flows Based on Self-adjustable Critical State

作　　者：蒋锐[1] 郭忠印[1] 孔令旗[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2011年第5期880-883,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家863高技术研究发展计划项目(批准号:2007AA11Z235);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(批准号:2009BAG13A02)资助

摘　　要：考虑实际交通流中车辆驾驶员的主观能动性,改进交通冲突技术机械式假设的不足,提出交通流自适应临界状态概念.构建车速差、减速度差和行程时间差等3个模型,量化交通流运营状态的自适应"能力".以安全车头时距和实际车头时距的差值,评价实时交通流运营安全性.通过实验分析,结果表明基于自适应临界状态的运营风险与历史事故数之间存在良好的相关性.Considering characteristic of driver subjective in real traffic flows,self-adjustable critical state is put forward firstly conquering mechanical-hypothesis weakness of traffic conflict.Based on differences of speed/deceleration/travel time,analysis models are found to appraise ability of self-adjustable traffic flows.In according to discrepancy between safety headway and realistic headway,traffic flow risk index is introduced to audit real-time traffic safety.Experiment results showed that the relation between traffic flow risk and historical accidents is well.

关 键 词：自适应临界状态 车速差 减速度差 行程时间差 交通风险 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U492.8[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]