基于信息扩散理论的浙江通航环境风场风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Wind Field in Navigation Environment of Zhejiang Province Based on the Information Diffusion Theory

作　　者：吴力川[1] 文元桥[2] 陈佩燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉430063 [2]上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2011年第5期1010-1014,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(批准号:40805063/D0512);上海台风研究基金;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助

摘　　要：以浙江省各气象观测站风场数据为基础,根据信息扩散理论分析了浙江省及其沿海地区最大风速、大风天数的风险概率及其空间分布.研究表明:浙江内陆大部分区域10a一遇最大风速为15～20m/s,中部沿海为30～40m/s;7～9月是沿海大风发生风险概率较高的月份,嵊泗站冬夏季节9级以上大风概率较低,春秋季节风险概率较高;7级以上大风6d/月和12d/月的风险概率有比较明显的季节性;嵊泗站在春季、大陈岛站在10月至次年3月相比其他月份风险概率较高.Using the wind field data observed by Zhejiang weather stations,the risk probability of the maximum wind speed and the days of gale wind of Zhejiang Province as well as it＇s coastal area and its spatial distribution were analyzed based on the information diffusion theory.The results showed that the maximum wind speed which occurred once in 10 years is 10～20m/s in the majority of Zhejiang interior region,and in middle coastal 30～40m/s.The risk probability in July to September is higher than other months.The risk probability of strong gale or stronger is lower in winter and summer than in spring and autumn.The risk probability that the days of the maximum wind above 13.9m/s reach 6 or 12d per month has obvious seasonal characteristic： Risk is higer in spring in Shengsi station;the higher risk months is from October to next March in Dachen island.

关 键 词：信息扩散 通航环境 风场 风险 

分 类 号：U6[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]