生态脆弱性评价与预测研究进展  

Assessment and forecast of ecological vulnerability:A review

作　　者：靳毅[1,2] 蒙吉军 

机构地区：[1]北京大学深圳研究生院,深圳518055 [2]教育部地表过程分析与模拟重点实验室,北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2011年第11期2646-2652,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40871048)资助

摘　　要：如何定义和观测生态脆弱性,如何对生态脆弱性进行客观评价和有效预测,对于维持生态系统稳定、实现区域可持续发展有着重要的理论参考价值。本文在分析国内外相关研究进展的基础上,讨论了生态脆弱性的研究方向、研究尺度和研究方法等问题,并对生态脆弱性评价和预测进行了总结。当前生态脆弱性研究中,存在着研究框架不完善,研究方法不统一,以及研究尺度与精度之间难协调等问题。未来生态脆弱性研究应关注:1)进一步增加生态脆弱性研究的广度和深度;2)生态脆弱性研究与其他学科的交叉与融合;3)利用"3S"技术建立更加系统和完善的集脆弱性动态监测、综合评价和趋势预测为一体的生态脆弱性研究体系;4)生态脆弱性应对政策的研究。How to define, observe, assess, and forecast ecological vulnerability is of significance for maintaining ecosystem stability and realizing regional sustainable development. Based on the analysis of the related researches, this paper discussed the direction, scale, and methodology of ecological vulnerability research, and summarized the researches on the assessment and forecast of ecological vulnerability. It was considered that in the present ecological vulnerability researches, there existed some disadvantages, e. g. , imperfect research framework, inconsistent research methods, and uncoordinated relationship between research scale and research precision, and more attention would be paid to the four aspects in the future research ： （ 1 ） the width and depth of the research, （2） the interdisciplinary collaboration and integration of the research, （3） the establishment of integrative research system containing dynamic monitoring, comprehensive assessment, and trend forecast by using ＂3S＂ technology, and （4） the research of related policies and countermeasures in response to ecological vulnerability.

关 键 词：生态脆弱性 评价 预测 研究进展 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]