南通地区1960年-2007年气温与降水的年际和季节变化特征  

Characteristics of Inter-Annual and Seasonal Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over the Nantong Region during the Period 1960-2007

作　　者：王涛[1,2] 陶辉[1] 杨强[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,南京210008 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]南京大学地球系统科学国际研究所,南京210093

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第11期2080-2089,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家973重点基础研究发展计划(编号:2012CB955903)

摘　　要：以南通地区7个观测站点逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和降水量数据为基础,采用线性趋势法、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、滑动t检验法和小波分析方法,分析了1960年-2007年南通地区气温、降水的年际和季节变化趋势和突变、周期变化特征。结果表明:1960年-2007年,年际变化以最低气温的较大增幅和较早突变为特征。季节变化以秋冬季平均气温、平均最低气温增温明显,且冬季降水量增加,以及秋冬季增暖突变较早为主要特征。周期变化上,气温和降水参数多存在较大时间尺度上较为稳定的变化特征,如年平均气温21～30a和春季降水量14～25a时间尺度的变化。小尺度上(10a以下)的变化较为频繁,但不是很稳定。总体上,南通地区气温突变时间要晚于我国西部和中部地区,而降水变化不显著。Over the past half century, temperature rising has been observed in most parts of China, but temporal-spatial distribution of temperature change varies among different regions. In general, precipitation shows a greater regional difference than temperature, but the trend is not prominent. Examining trends in temperature and precipitation in Nantong located in the north wing of the Yangtze River delta would be greatly useful in predicting future climate change. There were 4 meteorological variables, i.e., average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, and precipitation at the monthly scale obtained from seven meteorological stations across the study region for use in this analysis. Methods of linear trend, moving average methods, Mann-Kendall nonparametric, moving T-test, and wavelet analysis were employed to examine trend, mutation, and cycle changes in temperature and precipitation at inter-annual and seasonal scales across the Nantong Region during the period 1960 to 2007. Results show that 1） linear rates of annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature, and annual average minimum temperature were 0.29℃/10a, 0.24℃/10a, and 0.54℃/10a, respectively. Years of mutation in annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature, and annual average minimum temperature were detected to be 1997, 2001, and 1988, respectively; 2） Linear rates of average temperature in spring, autumn, and winter were 0.37℃/10a, 0.27℃/10a, and 0.43℃/ 10a, respectively. Average temperature in summer didn＇ t pass the test. Linear rates of average minimum temperature in autumn and winter were 0.85℃/10a and 0.54℃/10a, respectively, and the value in spring and summer didn＇ t pass the test. Linear rates of precipitation only passed the test in winter, showing a value of 13.84 mm/10a. Years of mutation in average temperature in spring, summer, autumn, and winter were in 2000, 2003, 1996-1997, and 1991, respectively. Years of mutation in average maximum temperature in

关 键 词：线性趋势 Mann—Kendall检验 小波分析 气温 降水 南通 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]