南京低碳经济定量研究  

Quantitative Study of Low-carbon Economy in Nanjing City

作　　者：于文金 阎永刚[1] 张朝林[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]北京城市气象研究所,北京100089

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第11期28-32,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40371048);城市气象基金(编号:08371048);河海灾害实验室开放基金(编号:20090024)

摘　　要：城市化和工业化产生的碳排放是当今中国影响气候变化的重要因素,经济增长和碳排放之间的关系是当今研究的热点问题。本文研究南京市低碳经济发展的现状、阶段及演化特点,发现30年来,南京市低碳经济发展呈现波动反复的特点,扩张负脱钩3次,较高能源消费的经济增长形式-扩张连接4次,经济发展实现与能源消费较好脱钩的弱负脱钩1次,强脱钩4次,其余为弱脱钩。基于内生经济增长模型Moon-Sonn,建立了南京经济增长预测模型,并探讨了不同发展模式下南京未来50年低碳经济水平及碳排放量演化规律,预测了不同低碳经济水平下南京碳排放量和峰值出现的时间。研究结果显示,按现行经济模式,南京2050-2060年碳总量增加速度逐步减缓,约在2058年左右实现碳总量的负增长。50年内南京市预计为扩张负脱钩和扩张连接,难以实现稳定的高水平低碳经济增长模式;设定最优能源强度参数的模式下,南京迅速实现稳定强脱钩的低碳经济,碳释放量EKC曲线呈现倒U型,2015年左右即达到峰值。综合各种因素,南京近几年将延续模式1的增长模式,在2020年左右实现向模式2转变,其碳释放量约于2028年前后出现峰值。The carbon emissions produced by China urbanization and industrialization today is an important factor affecting climate change, so the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions is a hot research issue currently. This paper, by studying present development situation, stage and evolution features of Nanjing＇s low-carbon economy, found that the development of Nanjing＇s lowcarbon economy fluctuated repeatedly in the past 30 years： the negative expansion decoupling appeared three times; economic growth mode of higher energy consumption had expansion connection four times; better decoupling between economic development and energy consumption had weak negative decoupling once; stronge decoupling appeared four times; the rest low-carbon economy coefficients had weak decoupling. Based on the endogenous economic growth model Moon-Sonn, the economic growth forecast model of Nanjing City was established, discussing the level of low-carbon economy and the evolution law of carbon emissions in different development modes of Nanjing in the next five decades, predicting Nanjing＇s low-carbon economy emissions amount and when its peak time would appear at the different levels of low-carbon economy. The results show that the total carbon increasing rate of Nanjing will gradually slow down under the current economic model in the years 2050 - 2060, and the total carbon will achieve a negative growth in about 2058. Nanjing is expected to have negative expansion decoupling and expansion connections in 50 years, then it is difficult to achieve stable high level low- carbon economic growth mode. When setting the optimal energy intensity parameters mode, Nanjing will rapidly achieve stable strong decoupling low-carbon economy, and the Environmental Kuznets Curves （EKC） of Carbon emissions will present an inverted-U curve, which the peak will appear in around 2015. Considering various factors, the paper estimates that Nanjing will continue growth model 1 in recent years, then it will change to the mode 2 in 2020

关 键 词：南京 低碳经济 城市化 气候变暖 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]