中国化肥面源污染EKC验证及其驱动因素  

Authentication of the Kuznets Curve in Agriculture Non-point Source Pollution and Its Drivers Analysis

作　　者：李太平[1] 张锋[2] 胡浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [2]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第11期118-123,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"我国食品安全的风险管理研究"(编号:KYZ201009);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"建设以低碳排放为特征的农业产业体系和产品消费模式研究"(编号:10zd&031);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目"近一个世纪以来中国农家经济及农户耕地利用行为研究--与Buck资料的比较"(编号:X09B-063R)

摘　　要：基于1990-2008年全国各省、市、自治区的面板数据,本文首先对中国化肥投入面源污染的库兹涅茨曲线进行验证,并对经济发展过程中我国化肥投入面源污染时空演变规律的驱动因素进行理论与定量探析,以期为协调农业环境与经济增长和谐发展,进而实现中国化肥投入面源污染库兹涅茨曲线的低值超越找寻政策着力点。结果表明,中国化肥投入面源污染与宏观经济增长之间存在典型的倒U型曲线的关系。在影响中国化肥投入面源污染时空演变的诸多因素中,居民收入水平和环境需求水平的提高,有利于降低农业环境的污染程度;农民非农就业程度的不断提高、城乡二元环境管理体制、蔬菜和瓜果类等经济作物的播种面积大幅度增长和复种指数的提高是中国化肥投入面源污染不断加剧的重要原因。农业技术进步有利于降低中国化肥投入的面源污染,但由于中国农户的经营规模小和农业科技研发、推广和应用水平低下,使得农业技术进步环境效应并未得到充分发挥。Based on the panel data of each provinces from 1990 to 2008, this paper authenticates Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis of the non-point source pollution of fertilizer input in China, then the paper analyzes the drivers of the non-point source pollution change of fertilizer input. The results show that China＇ s chemical fertilizer input point source pollution and economic growth exists between the typical inverted U-curve relationship. China＇ s chemical fertilizer input in influencing the spatial and temporal evolution of point source pollution of many factors, income levels and raising the level of environmental needs, help to reduce pollution in the agricultural environment; farmers increasing levels of non-agricultural employment, urban and rural environmental management system vegetables and melons and other economic crops and cropping acreage increased substantially increase fertilizer input is rising- point source pollution, an important reason. Technological advances in agriculture is conducive to reducing China＇ s chemical fertilizer input point source pollution, but because of China＇s small-scale farmers and agricultural science and technology research and development, promotion and application of low level, making the environmental effects of technological advances in agriculture have not been fully realized.

关 键 词：化肥 面源污染 EKC 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F323.22[经济管理—产业经济]