大规模水利投资对中国经济的拉动效应——基于水利社会核算矩阵的分析  

On the Stimulating Effect of Large-scale Water Conservancy Project Investment on China's Economy:Based on the Analysis of Water Conservancy Social Accounting Matrix

作　　者：唐文进[1] 徐晓伟[1] 许桂华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《当代财经》2011年第11期20-29,共10页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"突发公共事件对中国宏观经济的影响及其优化管理研究"(70773119);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划"非常规金融突发事件的动态演变规律研究"(NCET-10-0828);国家社科基金重点项目"应对突发冲击的宏观调控预案研究"(08AJL006);中南财经政法大学百篇优秀博士学位论文培育项目

摘　　要：通过对最新的2007年中国投入产出表进行合理的拆分与合并,并结合其他数据编制的水利社会核算矩阵可以为研究水利投资与国民经济的互动提供大量的信息,利用水利社会核算矩阵乘数模型可以考察大规模水利投资对中国经济的拉动效应。实证分析结果表明,水利投资将对国民经济尤其是农业部门产生较大的拉动效应;不同水利部门的投资增加对国民经济的具体拉动效应存在较大的差别,了解这些差别有助于水利投资结构的优化;水利投资对我国GDP拉动的平均乘数大约为1.3;基于水利投资的结构分解,测算得出4000亿元的水利投资将会带来GDP增长4925亿元。This paper tries to compile a water conservancy social accounting matrix （SAM） based on China＇s latest input-output table （2007） and other data, which can provide lots of information for the study of the interaction between water conservancy project investment and the national economy. The SAM multiplier model can be used to examine the stimulating effect of large-scale water conservancy project investment on China＇s economy. The results of the empirical analysis show that water conservancy project investment creates a great promotion effect on the national economy, especially on the agricultural sectors. The increased investments at different water conservancy department would produce different specific stimulating effects on the national economy. To know the differences is helpful in optimizing the structure of the water conservancy projects. The average multiplier of water conservancy project investment on GDP is about 1.3. Based on the structural decomposition of water conservancy project investment, this paper estimates that a 400 billion yuan water conservancy project investment will introduce an increase of 492.5 billion yuan in GDP.

关 键 词：水利投资 拉动效应 水利社会核算矩阵 乘数分析 

分 类 号：F304.4[经济管理—产业经济]