两经济体建立自由贸易区的影响因素研究  

Determinants of Forming an FTA between a Pair of Economies

作　　者：曹吉云[1] 佟家栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《经济管理》2011年第11期9-16,共8页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"自由贸易区决定因素的差异性研究"(NKZXB10054)

摘　　要：本文采用Probit二元选择计量模型,以141个经济体两两构成的9870对经济体为研究样本,对两经济体建立FTA的影响因素进行实证检验。检验结果表明,两经济体距离越近、与世界的平均距离越远、经济规模越大、经济规模相似程度越大、要素禀赋差异越小、有相同的官方语言、民主程度越高、贸易壁垒水平越高、投资自由度越高、腐败程度越低、政治稳定程度越高和邻近经济体建立的FTA数量越多,两经济体建立FTA的可能性就越高。但是,两经济体有共同边界、存在殖民关系和至少一个是内陆经济体,对两经济体建立FTA的可能性没有稳健的显著影响。Based on the sample of 9870 pairs of economies covering 141 economies, the purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic empirical analysis of the determinants of forming an FTA between a pair of economies using a probit binary choice model. The results show that the likelihood of forming an FTA between a pair of economies is higher： the closer in distance the two economies are; the more remote a natural pair is relative to other economies; economically larger the two economies are; more similar the two economies are in economic size; less the difference in relative factor intensity between the two economies is; for the two economies sharing a common official language; more democratic the two economies are; for the two economies having higher trade barriers in the past ; higher the levels of investment and corruption freedom of the two economies are ; greater the political stabilities of the two economies are; and larger the number of FTAs the neighbourhood economies have already formed is. However, there are no robust significant impacts of sharing a common border,interior economies, and having colonial relationships on the likelihood of forming an FTA between a pair of economies.

关 键 词：自由贸易区 国际贸易 二元选择模型 

分 类 号：F114.41[经济管理—国际贸易]