基于VAR模型的产业结构变动与农业经济增长关系研究——以安徽省为例  

A Research into the Relationship between Industrial Structure Change and Agricultural Economic Growth Based on the Model of Vector Auto Regression——A Case Study of Anhui Province

作　　者：胡春阳[1] 鲍步云[1] 刘朝臣[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽科技学院经济管理学院,安徽凤阳233100

出　　处：《经济经纬》2011年第6期57-61,共5页Economic Survey

基　　金：安徽省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2011sk321);国家社会科学基金项目(11CJL03);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSK09-10D54)

摘　　要：产业结构变动在较长时期内促进了我国工业化进程和经济增长,但随着三次产业比例和份额的调整,产业结构变动对经济增长的贡献将逐渐下降并让位于资本和技术进步,而由此引起的传统部门与现代部门之间的产业失衡则成为当前亟待解决的问题。The changes in industrial structure have promoted the industrialization process and economic growth of our country. However with the adjustment of the proportion and share of three industries, the effect of industrial structural changes on economic growth will decline gradually and give way to the capital and technological progress,and the industrial imbalance between traditional sectors and modern sectors caused by it has become a problem demanding prompt solution.

关 键 词：产业结构 农业经济增长 VAR模型 协整分析 向量误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F321