大坝安全监控中定性指标的定量综合评价  

Quantitative and comprehensive evaluation of qualitative index in dam safety monitoring

作　　者：徐波[1,2,3] 包腾飞[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2011年第5期59-63,共5页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50909041;50879024;50809025);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划(2008BAB29B03;2008BAB29B06);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20070294023);河海大学自然科学基金(2008426811)

摘　　要：针对大坝安全监控中定性指标评价方法较少、评价体系不完善的问题,将区间评分法、集值统计理论、灰色理论和Jousselme距离函数引入大坝安全监控中,建立了一种定性指标的定量综合分析方法。该方法的具体步骤为:①利用区间评分法和集值统计理论确定定性指标的综合量化值;②利用灰色理论将指标的综合量化值进行评价等级量化,确定各指标对大坝安全影响的证据向量;③利用Jousselme距离函数确定各定性指标的权重;④对各定性指标的证据向量和权重进行融合得到定性指标对大坝安全的综合影响程度。实例分析结果表明,该方法可以对定性指标对大坝安全的影响程度作出合理的判断。With regard to few methods for evaluating the qualitative index and imperfect evaluation system in dam safety monitoring,a quantitative and comprehensive evaluation method for the qualitative index is established by introducing the interval marking method,the set-valued statistics,the grey theory and the Jousselme distance function.Firstly,the interval marking method and the set-valued statistics were employed to obtain the comprehensive quantitative value.Secondly,the evaluation level of the comprehensive quantitative value was quantified and the evidence vectors were obtained by means of the grey theory.Thirdly,the weights of all the qualitative indexes were obtained by use of the Jousselme distance function.Finally,the comprehensive influence of the qualitative indexes on the dam safety was determined by using the evidence vectors and weights.The case study indicates that the proposed method can be employed to rationally determine the influence of the qualitative index on the dam safety,and it is feasible.

关 键 词：大坝安全监控 定性指标 定量评价 综合评价 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]