中国泥石流滑坡灾害风险制图与空间格局研究  

Risk Mapping and Spatial Pattern of Debris Flow and Landslide Hazards in China

作　　者：刘希林[1,2] 余承君[1] 尚志海[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学自然灾害研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2011年第5期721-731,共11页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B03)

摘　　要：基于GIS技术和危险性区划图、2000年的社会经济数据相关资料,研究了中国泥石流滑坡灾害危险度、易损度和风险度的量化与分析,分别编制了比例尺为1∶6000000的相应地图.泥石流滑坡灾害的危险度是泥石流危险度和滑坡危险度的叠加;易损度采用简化后的评估模型,模型输入指标包括国内生产总值、土地利用现状及人口分布3方面;风险度在数值上表达为危险度和易损度的乘积.中国泥石流滑坡灾害的危险度、易损度和风险度的数值结果表明,中国分别有104km2和283008km2的国土面积受到泥石流滑坡灾害极高风险和高度风险的威胁;有3161815km2处于中度风险区;处于低风险和极低风险区的面积分别是3299604km2和2681709km2.就所占国土面积比例而言,以上各个风险区分别占0.001%,3%,33.55%,35%和28.45%.同时,还单独对30个省份及各自省会城市泥石流滑坡灾害风险的空间分布格局进行了分析.研究结果表明,政府和土地利用决策者应该施行更加严格的土地使用策略,特别是在极高风险和高度风险区域,严厉禁止任何对环境不利的人类活动;在中等风险地区,人类社会经济的发展也应受到必要的限制.The paper studied the hazardousness,vulnerability and risk of debris flow and landslide in China and compiled maps with a scale of 1∶6000000,based on Geographical Information Systems（GIS）technology,hazard zonation map,socioeconomic data from 2000.Integrated hazardousness of debris flow and landslide was the sum of debris flow hazardousness and landslide hazardousness.Vulnerability was employed a simplified assessing model,which was related to three aspects of GDP,land-use and population.Risk was expressed by the product of hazardousness and vulnerability.Analysis for the results of hazardousness,vulnerability and risk shows that China has extremely high risk territory with 104km2 occupied by debris flow and landslide hazards,and high risk territory with 283008km2,moderate risk territory with 3161815km2,low risk territory with 3299604km2,extremely low risk territory with 2681709km2,which respectively account for 0.001%,3%,33.55%,35%,and 28.45% of total territorial areas.The risk pattern of debris flow and landslide hazards had been studied,including the spatial patterns analyses of risk classes for 30 provinces and provincial capital cites.The studies suggest that the governments and land-use makers should carry out more strict politics for land uses.In the extremely high risk territory and in high risk regions,human activities and developments should be prohibited,and in the moderate risk areas,socioeconomic developments should be restricted so as to avoid the debris flow and landslide hazards.

关 键 词：泥石流滑坡灾害 危险度 易损度 风险制图 空间格局 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]