基于回归分析的群集疏散时间模型优化研究  

Optimization of Time Model of Crowd Emergency Evacuation Based on Regression Analysis

作　　者：陈建宏[1] 代伟[1,2] 李志江[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院 [2]中南财经政法大学信息与安全工程学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第8期30-35,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(50774092)

摘　　要：为提高国际上通用的疏散时间模型(简称经验模型)的仿真度,将人员的属性因素(自然属性和社会属性)影响纳入时间模型,采用回归分析方法,以某高校大型大学生艺术中心疏散案例为研究基础,通过调查采样建立185组数据的实测样本。结合影响人员疏散行为和疏散时间相关因素,运用统计软件SPSS17.0对样本进行回归分析,建立疏散时间回归模型。以回归模型为基础,将个体属性综合为群集属性,求取修正系数并对经验模型进行修正、检验。结果表明:利用回归分析和修正系数对疏散时间经验模型进行修正,可有效弥补经验模型缺乏考虑群集属性影响的弱点,提高经验模型的仿真度和应用价值。Aiming at improving the simulation degree of evacuation time model （ briefly called empirical model） generally accepted by the world, the influences of individual attributes （including natural and social attributes） are analyzed. Based on regression analysis and the evacuation investigation on a large university gymnasium, a 185-set-data sample is established. Combined with the factors that affect evacuation behavior and time of individuls, the regression model of crowd evacuation time is built with the statistical software SPSS17.0. The individual attributes are consolidated into crowd attributes and the correction coefficient k＂ is solved on the premise of regression model. Finally, the empirical model is revised and examined through the use of correction coefficient k~. The results show that, with the use of regression analysis and correction coefficient k, the empirical models weakness of lacking consideration on the influences of crowd attributes can be effectively filled up, and both the prediction accuracy and application value of evacuation time model will be improved.

关 键 词：回归分析 群集 应急疏散 时间模型 优化 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]