改进的灰色理论在短期负荷预测中的应用  

Application of Improved Grey Theory to Short-term Load Forecasting

作　　者：陈焕远[1] 刘新东[1] 佘彩绮[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学电气信息学院,广东珠海519070

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第11期189-191,218,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51007030);国家大学生创新性实验计划基金资助项目(101055937)

摘　　要：针对短期负荷预测问题,以减少预测模型复杂度和提高预测精度为目的,提出了一种改进的灰色理论预测方法,并与传统GM(1,1)方法进行了对比。仿真算例结果表明,该方法预测精度较优,具有较好鲁棒性,适用于短期负荷在线预测。In order to reduce the complexity of forecasting model and improve forecasting accuracy, an improved wavelet analysis method based on grey theory is proposed to predict short-term load. Compared the method with the traditional GM （1, 1）, the results show that the proposed method has higher forecasting accuracy and good robustness. Thus, it is suitable for short-term load online forecasting.

关 键 词：电力系统 短期负荷预测 改进方法 小波分析 灰色理论 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]